Author and futurist Peter Zeihan recently asserted that President Joe Biden has presided over “the most protectionist administration the United States has had in at least a century.” And Donald Trump reportedly plans to double down on protectionism if elected in November 2024. By the way, Zeihan is also the guy who predicts that The End of the World is Just the Beginning. His theory is that the global economic and political order the United States built and maintained since WWII is collapsing.Continue Reading The End of the World Order and the Rise of Trade Regulation

On September 16, 2022, the U.S. Commerce Department released its final rule regarding antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) circumvention inquiries on solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The rule implements President Biden’s June 6, 2022, Proclamation 10414, (which we discuss here) declaring an emergency with respect to the U.S. energy market, and temporarily waives the collection of AD/CVD duties for certain cells and modules subject to the AD/CVD anticircumvention inquiry initiated by Commerce in April 2022.Continue Reading Commerce Department Adds Guardrails Against Stockpiling of Certain Solar Cells and Modules During Temporary Waiver of AD/CVD Duties

This article suggests steps you should take to survive the current trade war. We are now in a trade war regardless of the fact that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin would rather we call it “a situation of trade disputes.” Trade disputes are what we had from approximately 1945 to 2017: a relatively stable world trading order in which differences over unfair trade practices were mostly worked out under existing remedies, such as the antidumping and countervailing duties regimes. What we have now is a period of escalating tit-for-tat tariff increases in which the old trading norms are being increasingly rejected, exempted, and undermined. And it is those very norms that kept us out of trade wars for the last 70 years.
Continue Reading Of Course You Know, This Means War: A Strategic Update on the Trump Trade War

On April 3, 2018, President Trump’s U.S. Trade Representative released a list of 1300 categories of Chinese goods that will be subject to 25% tariffs. That followed a tit-for-tat exchange in which President Trump announced a round of steel and aluminum tariffs on March 8, and China announced tariffs on U.S. imports worth around $3 billion on April 2 (including American pork, fruit, wine and steel pipes). On April 5, China responded with a list of $50 billion of U.S. goods that will be subject to increased tariffs (including aircraft, automobiles, and soybeans). That same day, Mr. Trump announced that he is looking for $100 billion additional Chinese goods to tax.
Continue Reading Five Things You Must Know About Trade Wars

On Monday, August 14, President Trump signed an executive memorandum directing U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to consider a “Section 301” investigation against China. Now, many of us have heard the phrase Section 301 investigation and, as we do when we are at a party where everyone is talking about that movie we haven’t seen, many of us just nod along. For those of our readers putting on the brave smile, we present bit of background here on the following:

  • What Section 301 is;
  • How an investigations and further trade actions may proceed; and
  • What businesses should be most concerned.

Continue Reading Section 301: The Trade Law You May Not Know Well that Could Shock Industries

On June 19, Commerce Secretary Ross mentioned at a Wall Street Journal CFO dinner that the Administration is now considering launching an investigation of semiconductor imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Ross said the specific concern is the threat of China to surpass U.S. semiconductor production.
Continue Reading Dinner Table Conversation: How an Offhand Comment May Signal a Shift in the Global Trade of Semiconductors

As the Trump administration comes into its third month, we have clues, but must speculate on how that administration will modify Iran sanctions, NAFTA, foreign investment, and tariffs on China. In contrast, recently issued executive orders shed clear light on the Trump administration’s approach to antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD). (See our August 2016 blog for a general background on AD/CVD.)
Continue Reading Preparing For Heightened Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD) Enforcement Under the Trump Administration

For the first time since the era of pagers, dial-up, and Y2K hysteria, U.S. trade remedy cases are experiencing a resurgence. Under U.S. law, U.S. producers of goods may petition the U.S. government to impose extra tariffs on the import of competing goods deemed to be traded unfairly.
Continue Reading The Revival of the Age of Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Cases